000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N91W TO 10N103W TO 13N112W TO A LOW NEAR 
11N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N111W TO NEAR 
22N124W. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N133W IS MOVING WEST... 
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. 
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE SUBTROPICAL JET 
IS FOUND N OF 28N W OF 125W...AND SWLY FLOW PREVAILS BETWEEN THE 
JET AND THE HIGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
A TROUGH N OF 19N ALONG 106W. MODERATE ELY FLOW PREVAILS BETWEEN
10N AND 20N E OF 122W.

SURFACE...
WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDS E FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N145W TO 
NEAR 25N121W. THERMAL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE 
TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND UP TO 120 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1018 MB HIGH ALONG THE MEXICAN EAST 
COAST NEAR 20N97W AND A WEAK TROUGH FROM 18N92W TO 23N96W ARE 
ENHANCING N WINDS OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC. FRESH WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH BY WED AFTERNOON. MODEL 
GUIDANCE FAVORS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR 11N107W THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS DEVELOPING S 
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 112W.

MARINE...
CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD REACHING 15N. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE LARGE 
SURF ALONG EXPOSED COASTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 120W BY 
WED AS THE SW MONSOON INTENSIFIES.

$$
MUNDELL