000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N88W TO 10N102W TO 13N121W THEN RESUMES NEAR 
09N127W TO A LOW NEAR 10N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 114W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
127W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM NW MEXICO TO NEAR 21N122W. UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 20N128W MOVING WEST...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD 
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 
MODERATE SUBTROPICAL JET IS FOUND N OF 28N W OF 125W...AND SWLY 
FLOW PREVAILS E OF 125W TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...N OF 25N. 
ELY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOME VERTICAL SHEARING 
EFFECTS S OF 15N.

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE EXTENDS ESE FROM 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 30N140W 
TO NEAR 21N116W. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
FRESH WINDS FROM THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE FOUND UP TO 120 NM W 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1017 MB HIGH 
ALONG THE MEXICO EAST COAST NEAR 20N98W AND A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 
94W ARE ENHANCING N WINDS OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC. FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH LATE WED.

MARINE...
CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD REACHING 15N. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE LARGE 
SURF ALONG EXPOSED COASTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
MUNDELL