000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141017
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ELONGATED MONSOONAL TROUGH WITH CONVERGING SW AND E-NE WINDS HAS 
BEEN ANALYZED ALONG PATH OF ITCZ.  TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
12N90W TO 10N119W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS.  

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS RIDGE W 
TO NEAR 125W.  NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N128W TO SMALL 
CYCLONE AT 19N129W MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS ALOFT W OF N OF 15N   
W OF 120W.  EASTERLY LOW ON S SIDE OF RIDGE DOMINATES AREA S OF 
20N FROM W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA W TO 120W.  ISOLATED 
TO SCATTERED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ON S SIDE OF EPAC MONSOON 
TROUGH AS MINOR MID TOP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTRUDES INTO E PAC 
JUST S OF RIDGE. 

AT THE SURFACE...
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC AS 
SURFACE REFLECTION OF ABOVE MENTIONED MINOR TROUGH CROSSES 
ISTHMUS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN TROUGH TUE AND DIMINISH BY 
LATE WED.

PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGH ALONG CALIFORNIA AND SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE WHICH EXTEND FROM 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N140W TO 20N113W... 
PROMPTS FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELL ENTERED E PAC SPREADING N 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD REACHING 15N. THIS LIKELY TO GENERATE 
LARGE AND STRONG SURF ALONG EXPOSED CASTS DURING NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
WALLY BARNES