000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W 
TO 12N89W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N110W TO 13N132W THEN RESUMES NEAR 
12N135W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 88W AND BETWEEN 112W AND 
116W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN 123W AND 125W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
126W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN ANTICYCLONES LOCATED E OF THE AREA 
NEAR 30N102W AND W OF THE AREA NEAR 19N142W IS DIVIDED BY A SLOW 
MOVING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF AREA THROUGH 32N129W TO 
23N127W. THIS TROUGH IS ATTEMPTING TO PICK UP A WEAK UPPER LOW 
LOCATED NEAR 19N127W. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE 
TROUGH TO GRADUALLY MOVE NE INTO THE CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...LEAVING THIS LOW BEHIND. A MORE UNIFORM 
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO FAR N WATERS TO THE 
W OF THE TROUGH BY MON. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES UNDER 
THE DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N TO 28N. THERE ARE NO OTHER AREA OF 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION N OF 20N AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 
OVERNIGHT SHOWS NO AREAS OF WINDS OVER 20 KT. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 20N110W.

S OF 20N...
THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE BROKEN UP BY SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING 
FROM ABOUT 05N TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO GENERALLY 
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AS SEEN IN SHIP...BUOY...AND SCATTEROMETER 
OBSERVATIONS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NEAR THE WESTERN 
EDGE OF THIS SW FLOW FROM 15N97W TO 10N106W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF 
MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 102W JUST NW OF THE TROUGH. THIS AREA 
LIES UNDER DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 
BROAD ANTICYCLONE E OF THE AREA AND THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW 
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. FARTHER W...A 1010 MB SURFACE 
LOW EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 13N134W HAS 20 KT WINDS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. THIS LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

$$
SCHAUER