000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS BEGINS AT 12N118W AND EXTENDS TO 11N127W TO 11N138W. 
SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
118W-122W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE 
FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO A COL REGION NEAR 21N130W. 
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF 
CENTRAL MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONE WELL W OF THE REGION EXTENDS A 
RIDGE EASTWARD TO 20N140W AND TO 20N132W.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING 
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA W OF OF A LINE FROM 26N112W TO 
19N125W TO 11N1305. THIS IS MAINTAINING A VERY STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT DENOTED BY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
MOVING SW N OF ABOUT 19N AND W OF 125W.

TO THE N OF THE COL REGION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES
INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N137W TO 28N131W AND S TO 23N131W... 
WHILE A NARROW RIDGE MOVING E IS TO THE NE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STAYING TO THE N OF THE REGION AS IT STREAMS 
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UP 
AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE CREST 
OF THE RIDGE WHERE ITS TENDS TO EVAPORATE AS IT SINKS 
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

TO THE E OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE 
STRONG ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO
MAINTAINING AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC HAMPERING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
FROM ACHIEVING ANY DEPTH IN HEIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK RIDGE STRETCHES INTO THE AREA
THROUGH 32N137W TO 24N123W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N W 
OF 125W. SOME EVIDENCE OF A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N100W
8N110W WITH WEAKENING ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE
OF IT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK HIGH PRES AND LACK OF PERSISTENT
LOW PRES IN THE TROPICAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 
RELATIVELY
LIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE