000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1930 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 12N118W 
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 130W AS WELL AS WITHIN 45 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WEST FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE 
FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 22N127W. A 
COL LIES NEAR 21N130W AND THEN THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES 
W...EXTENDING FROM 20N132W TO AN ANTICYCLONE WEST OF AREA NEAR 
20N148W. A 45-55 KT WESTERLY JET LIES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
AND DRY AIR IS ABUNDANT IN BOTH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY N OF A LINE 
FROM 14N140W TO 28N110W. EAST WINDS ALOFT UP TO THE 35-40 KT 
RANGE CONTINUE FROM 16N TO THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF 120W IN 
ADDITION TO SOUTH OF 08N EAST OF 100W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 1445-1700 UTC INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE 
BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE 
FROM THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THROUGH 22N120W TO 21N111W. THE 
ITCZ IS LIMITED TO WEST OF 118W WITH VERY WEAK WESTERLY OR 
VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION EAST OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 08N 
AND 14N TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED FROM 11N100W TO 09N102W TO 08N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 
09N TO 11N. ASCAT DATA SHOWS S TO SW WINDS PICKING UP TO 10 TO 
15 KT S OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. NO TROPICAL WAVES 
ARE ANALYZED IN THE EAST PACIFIC.

$$
SCHAUER