000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 12N120W 
TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES ON THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WEST FROM THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE 
VALLEY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 22N123W. A COL LIES 
NEAR 22N127W AND THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES W...EXTENDING FROM 
20N132W TO AN ANTICYCLONE WEST OF AREA NEAR 20N148W. A ZONAL JET 
LIES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DRY AIR IS ABUNDANT IN BOTH 
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY N OF A LINE FROM 17N140W TO 17N130W TO 28N112W. 
STRONG EAST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE FROM 12N TO THE RIDGE AXIS EAST 
OF 122W IN ADDITION TO SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 110W. 

SURFACE...
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE 
BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE 
FROM THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THROUGH 23N130W TO 21N112W. THE 
ITCZ S LIMITED TO WEST OF 120W WITH VERY WEAK WESTERLY OR 
VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION EAST TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 12N100W TO 09N102W 
TO 08N109W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS S TO SW WINDS PICKING UP TO 
10 TO 15 KT SE OF THIS TROUGH TO NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. NO 
TROPICAL WAVES ARE ANALYZED IN THE EAST PACIFIC.

MARINE...
A JASON1 PASS FROM AROUND 1100 UTC INDICATES SEAS ARE 8 FT NEAR 
10N100W IN THE REGION OF 15 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 15-16 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL. AROUND 
THE SAME TIME...JASON2 SAMPLED SEAS TO 8 FT IN MERGING N AND S 
SWELL NEAR 12N120W UNDER THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF 
THE ITCZ. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE EASTERN AREA OF SEAS AROUND 
8 FT TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE WESTERN AREA 
SHIFTS FARTHER WEST.

$$
SCHAUER