000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091015
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS FROM 10N98W TO 10N111W TO 12N116W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WEST FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TO 18N 
140W. ZONAL FLOW IS EVIDENT NORTH OF THE RIDGE...AND STRONG EAST 
WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF 122W AND FURTHER 
SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 110W. A SMALL AREA OF WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR 
IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC TO AROUND 10N.

SURFACE...
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NW PART 
OF THE AREA TO NEAR 28N123W. THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THE 
ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO VARY ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. 
NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ANALYZED IN THE EAST PACIFIC...AND WAVE 
ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN IS BELOW NORMAL.

MARINE...
ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATES SEAS ARE BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
BASIN. WW3 MODEL DATA INDICATES SEAS WILL APPROACH 8 TO 9 FT W 
OF 115W FROM ENHANCED SW WINDS IN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO FORM...BUT CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE DO NOT FAVOR THIS...SO
MARINE CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

$$
MUNDELL