000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 9N100W 12N117W 12N130W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 96W-99W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-89W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS NEAR 24N125W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING E ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING 
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA W OF OF A LINE FROM 26N110W TO 
17N120W TO 10N130W. THIS IS MAINTAINING A VERY STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N 
OF ABOUT 19N AND VERY LIMITED CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE 
THE ITCZ REGION.

OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF ABOUT 30N...A 
RATHER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ESE. THE UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE IS TRANSITIONING
TO SW...BUT IS PRETTY MUCH VOID OF ANY MOISTURE AS WHATEVER
MOSITURE APPROACHES 32N IS EVAPORATED IN THE SUBSIDENCE AIR.

TO THE E OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE 
STRONG ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR AN 
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL SHEAR TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC NOT ALLOWING FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
TO BECOME DEEP OR ORGANIZED.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 32N140W TO NEAR 24N123W. 
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. A WEAK TROUGH IS
ALONG 124W MOVING SLOWLY W. ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH. 

WITH RESPECT TO MARINE INTERESTS...N WINDS OF 20 KT OCCURRING
N OF 26N BETWEEN 122W-133W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ALONG WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
TO 9 FT IN A SWELL IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS FROM 9N TO
12N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W...THEN BE CONFINED FROM 7N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 115W IN 48 HOURS. OVERALL...WIND AND SEA 
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT RANGE BY FRI AS THE 
RIDGE REMAINS WEAK.

$$
AGUIRRE