000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS CENTERED ALONG 12N87W 14N101W TO 11N115W 12N130W 12N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 
100W-106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS NEAR 23N128W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING ESE TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N118W...AND CONTINUES
E TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N105W. THE 
ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY 
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING 
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA W OF OF A LINE FROM 24N111W TO 
17N120W TO 9N130W. THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A VERY 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY A MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUD LAYER NOTED TO THE N OF ABOUT 19N.

TO THE N OF THE ANTICYCLONES WLY FLOW BECOMES RATHER FAST AS A 
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS S ALONG THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST. A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA.

TO THE E OF THE ABOVE LINE...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE STRONG
ALLOWING FOR AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL SHEAR TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC HOSTILE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 
AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N140W...
AND EXTENDS TO NEAR 21N123W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N
W OF 128W. A LOW JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 13N143W OF 1009 MB 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
SW AND W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SWELLS EARLIER 
AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR 140W NOW ABATING. OVERALL...WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT RANGE
BY THU AS THE RIDGE REMAINS WEAK.

$$
AGUIRRE