000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 15N95W TO 14N109W TO 10N122W TO 10N132W TO 14N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S OF AXIS FROM 107W 
TO 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...RIDGE EXTENDS WEST FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 22N128W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N115W. STRONG 
EAST WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE ARE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HOSTILE TO PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER NW PORTION OF AREA THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 32N138W TO NEAR 22N128W IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. LOW PRES TROUGH FROM 1012 MB LOW EAST 
OF THE AREA NEAR 14N143W TO 12N135W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD FROM 10N140W 
TO NEAR 12N126W BY THURSDAY. LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDING N-S ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
IS LOW. WEAK LOW LEVEL VORTICES ARE EVIDENT IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
EAST OF 115W...BUT NONE HAVE PERSISTENT CONVECTION OR ORGANIZED 
LOW CLOUD LINES.

MARINE...SEA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAKER WINDS W OF CALIFORNIA AND ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE SW MONSOON ARE EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...WW3 WAVE MODEL 
SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA OF 20 KT AND 8 FT 
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT TO 8 FT NEAR 25N128W. 

$$
MUNDELL