000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 16N94W TO 13N101W TO 13N111W TO 10N125W TO 13N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ALONG 24N FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
OVER TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH AN 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N123W...TO NEAR 26N133W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW 
FROM 41N136W THROUGH A LOW NEAR 33N150W TO NEAR 14N151W. STRONG 
EAST WINDS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN
98W AND 125W...AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 122W. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS HIGH SHEAR AND NOT CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE FOUND IN NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE ALONG 24N AND THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR W OF 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N143W TO NEAR 22N127W. PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND THERMAL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA IS 
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W.
ITCZ REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 100W BUT LACKS 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A 1011 MB LOW ANALYZED 
NEAR 12N144W HAS PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUT NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION.
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF MOVING THIS LOW ACROSS 140W INTO EAST 
PACIFIC BASIN. EXPECT FEATURE TO WEAKEN INTO A LOW PRES TROUGH BY
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN A TROUGH NEXT 2-3 DAYS. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW
20 KT OVER THE AREA EXCEPT EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PART WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. 

MARINE...
SWELL GENERATED BY GALES W OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD S OF 30N 
THIS MORNING TO AROUND 22N BY TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
AND DISSIPATE INTO A BACKGROUND RESIDUAL SEAS COMPONENT. SWELL 
WILL ALSO SUBSIDE FROM 10N TO 15N E OF 120W TONIGHT AS MONSOON 
FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEAR 
RATHER BENIGN...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA LESS THAN 20 KT AND 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL