000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 UTC SUN SEP 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS FROM 15N107W TO 10N128W TO 
13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 113W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 
31N119W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 19N133W. A TUTT 
CELL NW OF DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N145W IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO 17N IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. STRONG 
EASTERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT S OF 20N AND EAST OF 120W...SEVERELY 
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO 
VERTICAL SHEAR. BUT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING DEEP 
CONVECTION NEAR A LOW CENTERED 12N142W.
 
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS SSE FROM A 1035 MB HIGH NW OF THE AREA 
FROM 32N136W TO 17N130W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATELY 
STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WEST OF 111W. A WEAK 
LOW IS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF HIGH VORTICITY 
NEAR THE SURFACE AND DIVERGENT FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS NEAR 12N142W.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE ACROSS 140W OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS WITH 20 KT WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS. GALES FROM STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL 
PRODUCE N SWELLS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO N CENTRAL 
PART OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
MUNDELL