000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1600 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E IS CENTERED INLAND NEAR 17.0N 95.8W 
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 
KT. REFER TO THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 
98W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INLAND WITHIN 24 
HOURS. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 
13N88W THEN RESUMES AT 13N108W TO 10N125W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
E OF 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 05N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W 
OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N122W 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N140W. 
ELSEWHERE...MODERATE EAST WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THESE WINDS CAUSED THE FORMER 
TD 10-E NEAR 22N111W TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN FROM VERTICAL SHEAR. 
WINDS OVER TD 11-E ARE BROADLY DIFFLUENT EAST OF 92W AND ARE 
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE S OF 24N E OF 125W TO 
COLOMBIA.

SURFACE... 
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N140W TO 27N127W WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM E OF 
ACAPULCO TO MAZATLAN. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS SOUTHERLY 
FLOW SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WELL DEVELOPED MONSOON FLOW EAST OF 
108W FEEDING INTO S MEXICO. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS T.D.11-E 
MOVING INLAND AND DISSIPATING TODAY WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND 
VORTICITY SPINS UP AS A LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ITCZ WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WEST OF 110W WHILE THE STRONG SW MONSOON 
WINDS SUBSIDE EAST OF 110W.

$$
FORMOSA