000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0500 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E IS CENTERED AT 04/0300 UTC NEAR 20.7N 
110.9W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND THE LATEST 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W QUADRANT. THIS 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E IS CENTERED AT 04/0300 UTC NEAR 15.5N 
95.2W MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND THE LATEST 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW 
QUADRANT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TOMORROW 
MORNING...AND DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 14N100W TO 10N122W 
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
28N124W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR N OF 25N. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 21N140W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS 
ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E AND 
THE ITCZ WESTWARD. 

SURFACE... 
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N140W. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 19N121W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS. 
FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 
15N...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELLS OF 8 FT S OF 08N E OF 130W WILL DIMINISH WEST 
OF 115W...BUT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND E OF 115W. 

$$
AL