000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E IS CENTERED AT 03/2100 UTC NEAR 20.2N 
110.9W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND THE LATEST 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 112W 
AND 115W.

A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N95W 
DRIFTING N. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 
17N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W TO INCLUDE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA 
AND S MEXICO. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 14N103W TO 10N120W 
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS AND 60 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N123W WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 17N140W. TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION 10-E IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DIVERGENT FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA... AND THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
AIR MOISTURE S OF 23N E OF 120W TO COLOMBIA.

SURFACE... 
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N140W. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 23N115W. FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW PREVAILS 
OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E TO INCLUDE THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 24 TO 
48 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN ACTIVE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE BASIN FROM 100W TO 140W...ROUGHLY ALONG 
10N...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

$$
FORMOSA