000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E IS CENTERED AT 03/1500 UTC NEAR 20.0N 
110.4W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND THE LATEST 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 109W AND 113W.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 14N94W TO 
12N110W TO 11N125W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N123W WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 17N140W. TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT SOUTH OF 
THE UPPER RIDGE. SO FAR UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAK ENOUGH 
TO ALLOW TD 10-E TO SLOWLY DEVELOP. DIVERGENT FLOW OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE S OF 
23N E OF 120W TO COLOMBIA.

SURFACE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 17N93W 
12N95W NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W TO INCLUDE 
COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO.   

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 37N140W. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 23N115W. FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW PREVAILS 
OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGEST AN ACTIVE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE 
BASIN FROM 100W TO 140W...ROUGHLY ALONG 10N...BUT WINDS AND SEAS 
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

$$
FORMOSA