000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031008
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N109.6W MOVING 
NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1001 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. REFER 
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 14N110W TO 10N120W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 110W TO 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ALONG 27N TO 
AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N121W THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 
BEYOND 18N140W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE 
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SO FAR UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW TD 10E TO SLOWLY DEVELOP. 
DIVERGENT FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR NW 
OF A LINE FROM 27N113W TO 13N140W.

SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NW PART OF REGION TO NEAR 
23N124W. FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 24 
TO 48 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN ACTIVE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE BASIN FROM 100W TO 140W...ROUGHLY ALONG 
10N...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

$$
MUNDELL