000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1003 MB CENTERED NEAR 18.5N109W. DEEP 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT AND MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS 
EXTEND 75 NM FROM CENTER. SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW 
CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOW.  
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TO FORM AT ANY TIME...AND THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY 
OF SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 14N110W TO 10.5N120W TO 10.5N129W TO 09N135W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N AND 90 NM 
S OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN 
HALF OF THE BASIN WITH CENTER NEAR 26N116W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES DRY AIR NW OF A LINE FROM 13N140W TO 28N111W. THIS 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PRODUCING ONLY WEAK SHEAR WHICH IS 
PRODUCING THE CONDUCIVE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE LOW 
PRESSURE NOTED IN SPECIAL FEATURES. NE FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER 
THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE SW FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 101W...AND FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM HIGH PRES CENTER W-NW OF 
REGION TO 25N119W. FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE 
AREA SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SW SWELLS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF 130W OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
AL