000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1003 MB NEAR 250 NM S-SE OF SOUTHERN TIP 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 19N109W.  DEEP CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM W AND 210 NM E SEMICIRCLES.  NEAR STORM FORCE WIND 
EXTEND 75 NM FROM CENTER EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CONTINUE TO 
ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ITS SW QUADRANT.  UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING NEXT 24-36 
HRS AND THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY OF SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING NEXT 48 HOURS AND DRIFT W. 

SECOND SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 
15N94W IS EMBEDDED IN MONSOONAL FLOW...REMAINS STATIONARY AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ALTHOUGH ITS 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ADVERSE AT ALL.  PREVIOUS BURST 
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITS CENTER BUT 
NO TROPICAL ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN NOTED.  STILL SYSTEM REMAINS 
UNDER CLOSE MONITORING FOR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 13N110W TO 07N133W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER BASIN NEAR 27N115W COVERS 
BASIN N OF 15N W OF 114W MAINTAINING A DRY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
OVER REGION.  WEAK SHEAR ZONE ALONG 110W PROVIDE WINDOW FOR 
ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES CENTER TO INTENSIFY BEFORE STEERED W BY 
FLOW.  STEADY NE FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION S OF 15N E OF 114W 
CURTAILS TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND LOW PRES BUT DOES ADVECT 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ AXIS E OF 102W.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONE AT 10N132W ALSO PROVIDES TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ITCZ AXIS 
W OF 118W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
CENTRAL PAC RIDGE EXTEND SE FROM HIGH PRES CENTER W-NW OF REGION 
TO 20N120W KEEPING NW PART OF BASIN UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIR 
MASS. 

STRENGTHENING LOW PRES S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRODUCING NEAR GALE 
SW WINDS FROM 04N-15N BETWEEN 90W-112W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 
FT.  WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO STRONG BREEZE WITHIN 24 HRS.
SIMILARLY LOW PRES IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ENHANCES STRONG SW 
BREEZE N OF 06N E OF 85W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.  WINDS EXPECTED TO 
DROP BELOW 20 KT WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES