000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020257
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU SEP 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 17N107W MOVING NW. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT 
PASS AROUND 1628 UTC DEPICTING THE CENTER AND WINDS OF 20 TO 25 
KT WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED DEEP 
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. THERE 
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NW NEAR 8 KT. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 09N99W AND FROM 12N110W TO 09N125W 
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE 
SW TO NW MEXICO NEAR 30N110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SW OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR 
25N114W THAT IMPACTS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N E OF 132W. 
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. IT 
SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STEMMING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 38N145W. THE SURFACE HIGH 
INFLUENCES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W WITH GENERALLY 
LIGHT N TO NE WINDS WITH WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATING SEAS 
LESS THAN 7 FT. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

E OF 115W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
INVERTED TROUGH WITH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N108W SW TO 12N117W. LOW-LEVEL SW 
MONSOONAL FLOW IS PROVIDING FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE...ALONG 
WITH A LARGE AREA OF SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 05N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 101W AND 112W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SEAS UP TO 12 
FT. THIS AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH 
AXIS FROM 17N107W TO 10N122W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
HUFFMAN