000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 17N108W MOVING NW WHICH IS ABOUT 260 NM SW OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM 
OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 270 NM W QUADRANT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES NW NEAR 9 KT. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N82W TO 07N88W TO 09N99W AND FROM 12N110W 
TO 10N125W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N E OF 92W AND FROM 07N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS 
MEXICO NEAR 32N105W AND THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 27N113W TO NEAR 
21N122W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS JUST NW 
OF THE AREA NEAR 33N145W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA 
N OF 15N NW OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED 
TROUGH IS TO THE SW OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO EXTENDING 
FROM 27N103W TO 15N111W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE SURFACE 
LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER TROPICAL 
MOISTURE COVERS THE SE HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N E OF 
120W. 

HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 125W ANCHORED BY A 
1028 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA W OF 116W. 

$$
PAW