000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY 
LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA WITH A 1007 MB 
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N108W MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT 
WHICH IS ABOUT 215 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. WINDS OF 20 KT 
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE W OF THE LOW FROM 
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. THERE 
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N81W 07N89W 09N99W THEN RESUMES NEAR 
12N110W 10N128W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS E OF 85W TO INLAND 
OVER PANAMA...WITHIN 60/75 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 83W TO 
90W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 115W TO 120W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 130W TO BEYOND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS 
MEXICO NEAR 32N106W AND THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 26N113W TO NEAR 
20N122W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS JUST W 
OF THE AREA NEAR 31N143W WITH A SECOND NEAR 17N145W. WATER VAPOR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE 
AIR ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N NW OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AN 
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS TO THE SW OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
OVER MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 25N104W TO 16N11W ENHANCING THE 
ACTIVITY WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. 
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE SE HALF OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N E OF 120W. 

HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 125 KT ANCHORED BY 
A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF TE DISCUSSION AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA W OF 110W. 

$$
PAW