000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 16N107W MOVING NW AROUND 5 KT. 
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE WITHIN 240 
NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE LOW FROM 15N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 116W. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N82W 9N100W 13N110W 11N130W 9N140W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM N OF AXIS FROM
85W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM S OF AXIS FROM 111W-117W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM
117W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST NEAR 32N120W TO NEAR 28N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 15N143W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING TO A COL NEAR 19N133W. UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS 40-50 KT 
OVER THE THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM
27N140W TO 32N126W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N 
AND W OF 120W.

ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N125W. AN 
INVERTED TROUGH HAS INTRUDED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM 25N103W TO 19N106W. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER TROPICAL 
MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125 KT. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 
115W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W...WITH SEAS 8-12 FT IN SW SWELL. 
ANOTHER AREA OF SW WINDS 20-25 KT ARE S OF 07N E OF 87W. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OVER 
THE SAME GENERAL AREA.

$$
DGS