000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1007 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 15N105W MOVING WNW AROUND 5 
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW 
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THAT IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 15N110W 10N120W 113N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIHN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM
110N-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 133W-137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN  
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 138W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ W OF 130W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST TO 32N118W 25N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 
17N W OF 115W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22N123W. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER TROPICAL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N 
E OF AROUND 110W.

A 1009 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF FRANK...IS CENTERED NEAR 21N111W. 
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATER MORNING. SW WINDS IN 
THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE OCCURRING IN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 98W-121W...WITH SEAS 9-13 FT IN SW SWELL. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. S 
TO SW WINDS INCREASE OVER  THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 
07N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W BY LATE TONIGHT.

A SURGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SLY SWELL CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA S OF 13N E OF 117W. THESE 
SWELLS HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA.

$$
DGS