000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOW...
REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK NEARLY STATIONARY 
NEAR 21N112W AS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THERE IS NO 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO 
12N110W TO 12N125W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 94W AND WITHIN 75 NM N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 135W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST OF THE U.S. EXTENDS ITS 
INFLUENCE AS FAR SOUTH AS 25N ALONG 120W...CREATING A WEAKNESS 
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 22N121W. THE RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N99W TO 
BEYOND 23N140W. DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE RIDGE E OF 
115W IN THE PRIMARY GENESIS REGION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND 
TRIGGERING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SW OF MEXICO FROM 11N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 95W AND 108W. 

SURFACE...SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER REMNANT LOW OF FRANK SHOWS A 
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS FRANK DISSIPATES 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED 
MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NLY FLOW N OF 14N AND W-SW 
FLOW S OF 12N VICINITY OF 125W WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION. ITCZ 
APPEARS TO SPLIT INTO TWO CONVERGENCE LINES W OF 126W. BRANCH 
FROM 11N126W TO BEYOND 07N140W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS AND 
THE OTHER BRANCH FROM 12N126W TO 12N140W IS GENERATING MODERATE 
TSTMS W OF 133W. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS S OF 9N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 110W ARE BEING FOCUSED BY 1008 MB LOW IN MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
12N96W. GFS MODEL SHOWS AREA OF 25 KT SW MONSOON WINDS EXPANDING 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BUT WITHOUT A TROPICAL CYCLONE EMERGING 
FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH.

MARINE...SURGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELL IS SWEEPING 
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 120W. THESE SWELLS 
WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS 
OF 16 TO 17 SEC EXPECTED. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING 
TO 14-15 FT NEAR 10N100W BY TUE AS SURGE IN SW WINDS INTENSIFIES.

$$
MUNDELL