000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOW...
REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK IS CENTERED NEAR 
21N112W AS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THERE IS NO DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT 
NE AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 12N86W 14N95W 12N105W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG  WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 97W-103W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. EXTENDS 
ITS INFLUENCE AS FAR SOUTH AS 22N ALONG 123W...CREATING A BREAK 
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 20N124W. THE RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 25N102W 
THROUGH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N132W TO BEYOND 23N140W. DIFFLUENT 
ELY FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE RIDGE E OF 110W IN A PRIMARY GENESIS 
REGION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND TRIGGERING MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION SW OF MEXICO FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. 

SURFACE...SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER REMNANT LOW OF FRANK SHOWS A 
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS FRANK DISSIPATES WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM NLY FLOW N OF 14N AND W-SW FLOW S OF 12N BETWEEN
118W AND 124W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ITCZ APPEARS TO SPLIT 
INTO TWO CONVERGENCE LINES W OF 118W...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH FROM 
11N123W TO BEYOND 08N140W PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION...AND THE
OTHER BRANCH FROM 13N118W TO 12N125W TO 12N140W GENERATING AREAS 
OF MODERATE CONVECTION. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS S OF 9N
BETWEEN 90W AND 110W ARE BEING FOCUSED BY A WEAK LOW IN MONSOON 
TROUGH EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR 12N96W. GFS MODEL SHOWS
AREA OF 20-25 KT SW MONSOON WINDS EXPANDING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
BUT WITHOUT A TROPICAL CYCLONE EMERGING FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH.

MARINE...SURGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELL IS MOVING 
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 10N E OF 117W. THESE 
SWELLS WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TONIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL