000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 27/2100 UTC...

TROPICAL STORM FRANK IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 112.2W MOVING NW OR 
320 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. TROPICAL 
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER. 12 
FT SEAS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 NM SE OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED 
90 TO 120 NM WSW OF THE EXPOSED CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 09N ALONG 93W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION SW OF GUATEMALA WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE 
AXIS BETWEEN 11N AND 13N.    

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N84W 
TO 06N103W THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N114W TO 09N121W TO 12N129W TO 
09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS E OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N130W 
TO BEYOND 23N140W. FRANK IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N111W TO 14N117W. INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR 
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FRANK 
TO STEADILY WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SAT. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR 
ALOFT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 28N111W 
TO 15N140W. 

SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 30N140W TO NEAR 19N125W. 
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT AND SAT AS PRES GRADIENT 
BUILDS OVER NW PART OF THE AREA. WEAKENING TROP STORM FRANK AND 
ASSOCIATED WEATHER EFFECTS DOMINATE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM 
14N TO 22N BETWEEN 109W AND 115W. SLY WINDS PREVAIL S OF 8N E OF 
105W... AND WEAK WLY WINDS ARE FOUND N OF 8N E OF 105W. 

MARINE...ALTIMETRY SHOWS 8 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM 
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA S OF 4N. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 8 TO 
10 FT SEAS SPREADING S OF 32N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W TONIGHT 
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A NEW ROUND OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL 
BRING SEAS BACK TO 8 TO 9 FT IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS S OF 
7N BY SAT NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL