000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRANK IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 104.8W AT 25/1500 UTC OR 
145 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY 
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND PASS NEAR SOCORRO 
ISLAND BY FRIDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W 
AND 110W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N83W 
TO 08N98W THEN RESUMES AT 14N108W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 118W...AND FROM 
08N TO 13N W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER NE MEXICO AND 
THE SW CONUS THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST 
WATERS COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 135W. A PAIR OF WEAK 
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE EASTERN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N119W AND THE WESTERN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS NEAR THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION AREA BORDER NEAR 
32N130W. HURRICANE FRANK IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THIS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING 
W-NW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PRESENT OVER A 
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE ITCZ REGION AND THESE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS W OF 116W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE IMPACTS THE REGION N OF 18N W OF 120W. 
A PAIR OF 1010 MB WEAK LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE 
FIRST LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W AND REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS FROM 25/0442 UTC 
DEPICTED SW TO W WINDS 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW 
COVERING THE AREA FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W. THE 
SECOND LOW IS NEAR 11N133W AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. BETWEEN THE LOW CENTERS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED FROM 12N125W TO 18N122W. WHILE VERY LITTLE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER OF 
BOTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

ASIDE FROM WAVES GENERATED IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE FRANK... 
CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW SWELLS WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 15-17 
SECONDS CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS TO THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA S OF 22N...BETWEEN 80W AND A LINE FROM 22N127W TO 
00N138W. THIS AREA OF SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PERIODS SHORTEN BELOW 15 SECONDS. 

$$
HUFFMAN