000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRANK IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 96.0W WHICH IS ABOUT 
115 NM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO OR ABOUT 130 NM SSE OF PUERTO 
ESCONDIDO MEXICO AT 22/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF 
MEXICO BETWEEN 89W AND 100W. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 10N103W TO 
10N117W TO 13N125W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N128W TO 10N135W TO 
11N140W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 
13N126W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
ITCZ FROM 122W TO THE LOW. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NEW MEXICO 
EXTENDING A RIDGE W AND COVERING NW MEXICO AND THE N BAJA 
PENINSULA INTO THE FAR NE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 118W. AN INVERTED 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N129W TO 28N120W IS SUPPORTING THE  
WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SEAS ARE 
REMAINING TO 8 FT. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 130W AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NE TO E FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE TROPICS WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF THE REGION SURROUNDING T.S. FRANK. SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES ABOVE. 

ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA ROUGHLY 
N OF 20N W OF 120W PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. A 1009 MB 
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N114W WITH A SECOND 10110 MB LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 15N131W. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL IS ALL THAT 
SIGNIFIES BOTH OF THESE LOWS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO FROM 
18N-21N BETWEEN 105W-108W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 79W-88W. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTH 
WATERS PARTICULARLY S OF 10N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. 
ACCORDING TO THE MARINE GUIDANCE...THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL 
EVENT...WAVE PERIOD BETWEEN 18 TO 20 SECONDS...WILL SPREAD 
NORTHWARD REACHING 30N LATE MON. AT THE SAME TIME...SWELLS 
FROM THE N WILL INVADE THE FAR N WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT. 

$$
PAW