000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANK 
AT 22/1500 UTC. TROPICAL STORM FRANK IS CENTERED NEAR 
14.0N 95.3W WHICH IS ABOUT 120 NM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO OR 
ABOUT 150 NM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO AT 22/1500 UTC MOVING 
W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUST TO 50 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S. FRANK HAS BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES 
THAT FRANK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS EARLY AS MON. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N TO 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 87W AND 103W. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 10N110W TO 
11N120W TO 13N126W TO 10N135W TO 11N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NEW MEXICO 
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER NW MEXICO AND THE N BAJA 
PENINSULA AND THE FAR NE WATERS TO N OF 28N E OF 120W. AN 
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 128W FROM 15N-26N SUPPORTING A 
WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N127W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 13N125W 
TO 14N130W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. 
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY WATER 
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY N OF 16N AND W OF 130W. NE TO E 
FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE TROPICS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE REGION 
SURROUNDING T.S. FRANK. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. 

ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA ROUGHLY 
N OF 20N W OF 125W PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THE 
REMNANT LOW OF T.D. EIGHT-E IS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 21N113W. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL IS ALL THAT REMAINS BUT 
SEAS REMAIN TO 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 20N W OF 103W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 4N-8N E OF 88W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTH 
WATERS PARTICULARLY S OF 10N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. 
ACCORDING TO THE MARINE GUIDANCE...THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL 
EVENT...WAVE PERIOD BETWEEN 18 TO 20 SECONDS...WILL SPREAD 
NORTHWARD  REACHING 30N LATE MON. AT THE SAME TIME...SWELLS FROM 
THE N WILL INVADE THE FAR N WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 130W RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT STARTING SUN NIGHT. 
 
$$
PAW