000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 22/0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 
13.7N 94.4W MOVING WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT AND THIS GENERAL 
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A 
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE CLOUD 
PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER 
ORGANIZED AS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE 
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
FACTORS SUCH AS A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE TODAY AND HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 60-72 HOURS.  

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS 10N110W TO 12N126W TO 
11N130W TO 11N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW PORTION OF 
NEW MEXICO NEAR 33N108W EXTENDING A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TO 
NEAR 18N140W. VERY DRY AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY N OF 16N 
AND W OF 130W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 26N127W TO 
18N127W. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF THIS TROUGH. 
NE TO E FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH ADDITIONAL 
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED N OF 05N AND E OF 
110W...INCLUDING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. NINE-E.  

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 
20N W OF 120W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS IN THE 10 
TO 15 KT RANGE. A 1011 MB AREA OF LOW PRES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ...IS LOCATED NEAR 13N127W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
WITHIN 210 NM SE AND S QUADRANTS OF LOW CENTER.

CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTH 
WATERS PARTICULARLY S OF 10N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. 
ACCORDING TO THE MARINE GUIDANCE...THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL 
EVENT...WAVE PERIOD BETWEEN 18 TO 20 SECONDS...WILL SPREAD NWD 
REACHING 30N LATE MON. AT THE SAME TIME...SWELLS FROM THE N WILL 
INVADE THE FAR N WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W 
RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT.
 
$$
GR