000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 21/15O0 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 
20.6N 111.4W MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE SW QUADRANT.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N93W. NUMEROUS TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR 
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO 
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N92W ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC AND MEXICO NEAR 17N95W GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 97W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS ERRATICALLY DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 12N110W TO 
12N128W TO 09N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N109W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 20N140W DOMINATING  
THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 20N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY AIR ALOFT ARE INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAINLY N OF 
14N W OF 125W. NE TO E FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS 
WITH SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 125W.  

ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W 
OF 130W. A FILLING 1009 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
NEAR 11N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE CENTER OF THIS LOW. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD N WITH SEAS TO 12 
FT OVER S CENTRAL WATERS AND SE WATERS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO 
AND W PANAMA. 

$$
AL