000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AT 21/09O0 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 
20.4N 110.8W MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE 
EXPOSED TO THE NE DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SW QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N92W ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC AND MEXICO NEAR 17N95W GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 97W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS ERRATICALLY DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 11N108W TO 
09N114W TO 13N127W THEN RESUMES AT 10N133W TO 09N140W. NO 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER SW TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
W ACROSS MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 30N102W DOMINATING  
THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N. T.D. EIGHT-E IS MOVING W-NW AROUND 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING OFF 
THE SW COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 11N105W COVERING THE REGION FROM 
20N-25N TO 111W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT 
ARE INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAINLY N OF 14N W OF 122W.  
NE TO E FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH 
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 115W.  

ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W 
OF 130W. A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 
11N130W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND 
SEAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
BEFORE DISSIPATING IN 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD N WITH SEAS TO 12 
FT OVER S CENTRAL WATERS AND SE WATERS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO 
AND W PANAMA. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE S WILL 
AFFECT THE SW WATERS.

$$
PAW