000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 
11N110W TO 10N120W TO 11N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 124W AND 131W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
N OF 04N E OF 90W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
COLOMBIA...AND N OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 106W TO THE COAST OF 
MEXICO. 

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS 
NEAR 31N102W EXTENDS A RIDGE WSW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO THE EPAC COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N 
OF 20N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS 
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 20N W OF 120W. NE TO E 
FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH SIGNIFICANT 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 120W.  

SURFACE...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ANALYZED 1006 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 18N107W REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE LOW FROM 16N TO 
19N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES W 
OR W-NW OVER COOLER WATER WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. A SURFACE 1013 MB LOW 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 12N131W. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD N WITH SEAS TO 12 
FT OVER S CENTRAL WATERS AND SE WATERS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO 
AND W PANAMA. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS 
OF 8 TO 10 FT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST S OF 20N BY EARLY 
SAT MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD 
SWELLS FROM THE S WILL AFFECT THE SW WATERS.

$$
PAW