000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 
12N103W TO 09N115W TO 11N127W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.      

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS 
NEAR 31N100W EXTENDS A RIDGE WSW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO THE EPAC COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N 
OF 15N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS 
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 20N W OF 120W. NE TO E 
FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH SIGNIFICANT 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 120W.  

SURFACE...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ANALYZED 1005 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 18N107W...HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WHICH STRETCHES FROM 
FROM 19N108W TO 14N96W. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES 
WESTWARD OVER COOLER WATER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
LOW CENTER. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH HAS DISRUPTED THE 
ITCZ...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT COVERING THE AREA 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W. A SURFACE RIDGE LIES FROM 
30N140W TO 20N120W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 15N133W TO 
12N132W WHERE A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES IS SEEN TO 10N128W. A 
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

MARINE...CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL HAS RAISED SEAS TO 11 FT 
OVER S CENTRAL WATERS. THIS SWELL EVENT HAS ALSO MOVED INTO SE 
WATERS WHERE SEAS HAVE NEAR 9 FT OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN 
PANAMA. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS OF 8 TO 
10 FT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST S OF 20N BY SAT MORNING. AT 
THE SAME TIME...A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE S 
WILL AFFECT THE SW WATERS.

$$
GR