000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191556 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU AUG 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 12N102W TO 10N115W TO 10N128W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS. SW MONSOON FLOW DOMINATES THE PAC WATERS GENERALLY S OF 16N E OF 102W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N126W TO BEYOND 140W NEAR 22N. AN UPPER TROUGH S OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 27N115W TO 20N112W TO 13N111W. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N109W...AND FURTHER SOUTH NEAR 16N106W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N141E. DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED SW OF THE MEXICAN COAST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 18N W OF 118W. SURFACE...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS W FROM 12N102W TO 10N115W TO 10N128W TO 08N140W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. A TROUGH ANALYZED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N108W TO 12N94W HAS DISRUPTED THE ITCZ EAST OF 102W...WITH W TO SW MONSOON WINDS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. SW WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KT FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURES AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MARINE...CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL HAS RAISED SEAS TO 10 FT OVER S CENTRAL WATERS. THIS SWELL HAS ALSO MOVED INTO SE WATERS WHERE SEAS HAVE NEAR 9 FT OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST S OF 20N BY SAT MORNING. $$ MUNDELL