000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 10N110W 
TO 09N117W TO 11N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 113W AND 
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
DOMINATES THE PAC WATERS GENERALLY E OF 107W TO A TROUGH OFF THE 
MEXICAN COAST FROM 19N107W TO 16N102W TO 14N94W.    

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
OVER TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO AN 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N123W AND THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
23N137W BEFORE EXTENDING W OF AREA. THE RIDGE PASSES NORTH OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH FROM 20N134W TO 10N140W. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE 
REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH FROM 17N134W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 
13N131W AND THEN TO 10N128W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
LIES NEAR THIS SURFACE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
MOSITURE BEING TRANSPORTED TOWARD THE UPPER TROUGH BY THE 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH 
LIES FROM EASTERN OREGON SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FORECAST WATERS FROM 
30N125W TO 25N130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR 
ALOFT IS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 18N W OF 118W 
EXCEPT WHERE MOISTURE ALOFT IS POOLED E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE LIES FROM 30N140W TO 
23N115W. A TROUGH FOUND OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO HAS DISRUPTED 
THE ITCZ...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOUND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS WHICH LIES FROM 19N106W TO 16N102W TO 14N94W. THIS POSITION 
IS BASED MAINLY ON ASCAT WIND RETRIEVALS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY 
WINDS REACH 20 KT FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. WINDS 
OF 20 KT ALSO RESIDE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE COAST JUST SOUTH 
OF CABO CORRIENTES. SHIP DFCW2 CONFIRMED E TO SE WINDS AROUND 20 
KT AT 0600 UTC NEAR 18N103W. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS RAISED SEAS TO 11 FT OVER S 
CENTRAL WATERS. THIS SWELL HAS ALSO MOVED INTO SE WATERS WHERE 
SEAS HAVE REACHED 8 FT OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA. THIS 
LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT TO THE 
REMAINDER OF THE COAST S OF 20N BY SAT MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER