000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED 10N83W TO 
14N93W TO 10N100W TO 10N120W TO 07N140. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 07N95W TO 
12N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 
08N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W AND 92W...FROM 
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W...WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. 


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW IS S OF GUATEMALA NEAR 12N93W SUPPORTING A SURFACE 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS MEXICO AND 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N94W TO 11N92W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
ANCHORED OVER TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS N MEXICO TO 
NEAR 28N123W DRAWING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE 
REGION S OF 24N E OF 110W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 27N133W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 
20N140W AND NE TO BEYOND 32N130W. THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 127W 
IS MARKED BY RELATIVELY DRY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH ONLY LOW 
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED 
TROUGH LIES IN THE TROPICS FROM 11N133W TO 20N127W. 
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 20N. 

OTHER SURFACE FEATURES...A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE 
COAST OF W MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 19N106W ALONG 16N104W TO 15N98W 
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 13N96W TO 22N109W. A THIRD 
WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IN THE TROPICS EXTENDING FROM 15N133W TO 
11N128W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL UP TO 9 FT COVERS THE CENTRAL WATERS AND 
WILL SLOWLY MOVE N OF 10N BY THU MORNING. THIS SWELL EVENT IS 
ALREADY E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT OFF 
THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA BY LATE WED/EARLY THU. 

$$
PAW