000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

THE TROPICAL WAVE FORMALLY ALONG 100W HAS ENCOUNTERED LOW LEVEL 
WESTERLIES AND UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES AND HAS LOST IDENTITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 08N ALONG 86.5W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 12 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER 
WATER WITHIN 120 NM OF THE PAC COAST FROM 86W TO 89W.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 
10N88W TO 11N97W WITH ONLY SMALL CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING MODERATE 
CONVECTION OBSERVED NEAR THE AXIS. SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW 
DOMINATES THE PAC WATERS GENERALLY TO THE S OF 14N BETWEEN 95W 
AND 117W. MERGING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE FLOW 
FORMS AN ITCZ ALONG 10N120W TO 07N140W. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
120W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 
27N136W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 20N124W TO 
28N119W AND IS MOVING W IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD 
SHIFT. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N143W. A SECOND...ILL DEFINED CYCLONE IS 
OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 24N108W AND IS ALSO MOVING W WITH TIME. THE 
UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 12N W OF 122W. A BAND OF UPPER 
MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W...WITH 
THE PLUME THEN TURNING NE ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

DENSE UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING MOSTLY FROM DEBRIS CONVECTION 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...IS INDICATED FROM 22N TO 02N BETWEEN 78W 
AND 122W AND SPREADING SW IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW.

AN W TO E SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO NEAR 17N120W.  

$$
NELSON