000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY N OF 07N ALONG 100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 08N ALONG 85W MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
CONVECTION FLARED EARLIER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT ONLY A 
SMALL CLUSTER IS NOTED OVER THE PAC NEAR 08N84W.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 
11N95W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM 07N84W. SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW DOMINATES THE PAC 
WATERS GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W. MERGING LOW 
LEVEL NE FLOW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE FLOW FORMS AN ITCZ ALONG 
10N130W TO 07N140W. ONLY ONE CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED AT 08.5N126.5W AT THE MOMENT.   

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N112W TO A CREST NEAR 
25N135W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N145W. A SECOND...ILL DEFINED CYCLONE IS 
OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 25106.5W AND IS MOVING W WITH TIME. THE 
UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 12N W OF 120W. A BAND OF UPPER 
MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W...WITH 
THE PLUME THEN TURNING NE ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

DENSE UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING MOSTLY FROM DEBRIS CONVECTION 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...IS ALSO NOTED FROM 22N TO 02N BETWEEN 78W 
AND 120W AND SPREADING SW IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW.

AN W TO E SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO NEAR 17N120W.  

$$
NELSON