000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY N OF 07N ALONG 96W TO 97W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 180 
NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION 
ALSO FLARES WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE OVER THE E PAC 
WATERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE PAC COAST WITHIN THE SAME AREA. 
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW DOMINATES THE PAC WATERS GENERALLY TO 
THE S OF 17N E OF 130W. THE ITCZ AXIS RESUMES ALONG 10N BETWEEN 
130W AND 140W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW UNITED STATES TO A 
GRADUAL CREST NEAR 21N135W. UPPER CYCLONES ARE OBSERVED ON BOTH 
SIDES OF THIS RIDGE...ONE JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
31N145W...AND A SECOND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N110W. 
SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 
180 NM OF 24N125W. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO OVER SW ARIZONA. MORE 
PRONOUNCED DENSE UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM DEBRIS 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 26N110W...HAS 
SPREAD OUT TO THE N OVER SW NEW MEXICO...AND TO THE S ALONG THE 
W COAST OF OLD MEXICO FROM 30N TO 18N...AND IS NOW BEING 
ADVECTED SW AS WELL OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 15N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF A SURFACE 
LOW PRES NEAR 18N108W. ASSOCIATED DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS 
CONVECTION CONTRIBUTES TO THE PLUME PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.  

AN W TO E SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO NEAR 23N120W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING NW FLOW TO 20 KT ALONG THE PAC 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX 
SOME OVER THE PAC ON MON...BUT RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS 
INCREASING BRIEFLY TO 20 KT TONIGHT AND MON OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.     

$$
NELSON