000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W FROM 19N IN THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN TO 08N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN 
INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W...INCLUDING 
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN GUATEMALA...THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N94W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 12N105W 8N125W 11N136 BEYOND 10N140W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
97W AND 101W. MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 110W. WARMING CLOUD 
TOP TEMPERATURES...AND DISSIPATING BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING 
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N109W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
13N TO 17N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N140W BEYOND 32N130W AND 33N123W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 27N129W TO 23N135W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N137W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS NEAR 33N103W TO
MEXICO NEAR 29N108W...TO A 22N118W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
TO 17N125W. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO...FROM 
30N108W TO 21N102W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 
100W AND 120W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY 
LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN
100W AND 110W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 26N117W TO 29N124W BEYOND 30N140W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REACHING 20 KT NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE
NORTH OF 26N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROUGHING IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DIVES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY 
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR 16N109W IS EXPECTED TO 
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED IN THAT AREA.

THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N109W IS PART
OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS DRAWING MOISTURE 
NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM
20 KT TO 25 KT WERE FEEDING INTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS BROAD
TROUGH AND HELPING KEEP SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE IN 
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. SOME MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CURRENTLY IS NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO 
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ITS WEST.
THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD GRADUALLY
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THIS ENERGY IS INCORPORATED.

$$
MT