000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N85W IN THE YUCATAN STRAITS...
TO WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
09N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W TO 10N90W TO 14N98W...FROM 14N108W 
TO 09N120W 10N133W BEYOND 10N140W. A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC 
ENVELOPE COVERS THE AREA FROM 05N TO THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 88W AND 110W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...FROM
08N TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
11N ALONG 99W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 
115W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N110W.. STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 16N111W. OTHER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 113W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N140W BEYOND 32N130W AND 33N125W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 27N129W TO 23N135W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N137W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS NEAR 31N104W TO
MEXICO NEAR 29N108W...TO A 22N117W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 19N125W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE 
TROUGH CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO...FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO
20N100W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
THE MEXICO COAST AND 108W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W
AND 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 26N120W TO 27N132W BEYOND 27N140W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REACHING 20 KT NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE
NORTH OF 26N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROUGHING IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DIVES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY 
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR 16N110W IS EXPECTED TO 
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED IN THAT AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
16N110W IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS DRAWING
ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL WATERS. THE 0510 ASCAT 
PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS FEEDING INTO THE SOUTH SIDE 
OF THIS BROAD TROUGH AND HELPING KEEP SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT 
RANGE IN SW SWELL. SOME MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN 
THE VICINITY OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE 
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO ITS WEST. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS 
THIS ENERGY IS INCORPORATED.


$$
MT