000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 12N108W TO 09N116W TO 09N135W BEYOND 10N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS INLAND NEAR 17.6N101W 
SIX HOURS AGO...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...HAS
WEAKENED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 
19N101W 16N105W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N
TO 21N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. BROAD AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N103W. CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF AT LEAST 60 NM TO 90 NM OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W AND 111W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N113W.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N110W...FORECAST
TO BE STATIONARY IN MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 111W AND 
114W. THE EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT WAS FROM 
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 36N129W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER...THROUGH 30N130W
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N134W. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TOWARD 15N138W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NEAR THIS 
TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO/
WEST TEXAS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND NEAR
30N103W TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N105W...TO SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N111W TO 21N114W. MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 104W AND 110W...IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 26N120W TO 27N126W BEYOND 29N140W.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 
THE NORTH OF 07N TO THE EAST OF 123W. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS DRAWING ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL 
WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REACHING 20 KT WILL FEED INTO THE 
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS BROAD TROUGH...AND HELP TO KEEP SEAS
IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL.
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W...THROUGH
WESTERN COSTA RICA TO 08N86W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 84W AND 
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...AND FROM 08N TO 09N
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

$$
MT