000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED S-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO NEAR 16N100W 
AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING WNW AT AROUND 10 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N 
QUADRANT OF LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S QUADRANT OF 
LOW. THE LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS A HIGH 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N108W TO 10N115W TO 12N130W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N112W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N140W. THE 
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW AREA N OF 27N 
AND W OF 132W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
PREVAILS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF 
ESTELLE...IS CENTERED NEAR 16N111W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
180 NM W OF LOW. SW TO W WINDS OF 20 KT ARE FOUND FROM 06N TO 
15N BETWEEN 101W AND 114W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. 

$$
AL