000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122111
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO NEAR 15N100W AND 
IS CURRENTLY MOVING NW AT 10 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. A 1644 UTC ASCAT 
IMAGERY SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS N OF THE CENTER. THE LOW 
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT 
MOVES CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N75W TO 10N90W TO 14N100W TO 11N110W TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N TO THE GULF 
OF PANAMA E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 
12N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW AREA N OF 27N AND W OF 125W.  
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N112W WITH 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE TROPICS...EASTERLY 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS FROM THE EQUATOR 
TO 15N FROM COLOMBIA TO 130W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF 
ESTELLE....IS CENTERED NEAR 16N111W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 200 NM W OF LOW. 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ALSO 
WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. 

A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD...17 TO 19 SECONDS...SWELL TO 8 FT 
HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR E OF 110W AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING.

$$
FORMOSA