000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO NEAR 13N99W AND IS 
CURRENTLY MOVING NW AT 10 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE 
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. THE LOW 
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT 
MOVES CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N75W TO 09N83W TO 10N90W TO 14N100W TO 
11N110W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 04N TO 
THE GULF OF PANAMA E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW AREA N OF 27N AND W OF 125W.  
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N112W WITH 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE TROPICS...EASTERLY 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS FROM THE EQUATOR 
TO 15N FROM COLOMBIA TO 130W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF 
ESTELLE....IS CENTERED NEAR 16N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM W OF LOW. 20 KT WINDS AND 
SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ALSO WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. 

A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD...17 TO 19 SECONDS...SWELL TO 8 FT 
HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR E OF 110W AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING.

$$
FORMOSA