000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120410
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12N98W AND IS MOVING NW 5 TO 10 
KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE S SEMICIRCLE WITH SPEEDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. THE LOW IS 
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N80W TO 14N95W AND THEN FROM 12N102W TO 
12N120W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED N OF 12N E OF 125W 
INTO MEXICO WITH THE AXIS CENTERED ALONG 24N. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF ABOUT 12N HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS 
INDICATED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS INDICATE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TROPICS 
BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. AT THE SURFACE A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED 
NEAR 18N111W. WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT OVER THE NE 
QUADRANT...WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. HIGH 
PRESSURE IS LOCATED N OF 15N W OF ABOUT 115W.

E OF 105W...
MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER 
THE AREA E OF 105W. 

$$
CAB