000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111501
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N77W TO 11N86W TO 13N95W TO 11N100W TO 
12N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N
TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL W OF THE AREA NEAR 
18N153W OR JUST SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS LOSING ITS 
INFLUENCE ON THE DISCUSSION AREA AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE 
BARELY EXTENDS INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 22N137W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF THE AREA NEAR MONTEREY BAY CALIFORNIA 
TO 32N129W THEN CONTINUES AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 24N135W TO 17N140W. 
VERY DRY AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT 
ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 124W AS SHOWN IN WATER 
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. 

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW 
MEXICO NEAR 29N109W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A LARGE COL NEAR 17N134W. DIFFLUENT UPPER 
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM COASTAL MEXICO TO ALONG 123W N OF THE 
ITCZ TO 26N. THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF ESTELLE IS EMBEDDED IN 
25 TO 30 KT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS SHEARED ALL OF 
THE CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE REMNANT LOW CENTER. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NW WATERS 
EXTENDING FROM 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 45N142W. THE RIDGE ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N138W 
AND CONTINUES THROUGH 25N130W TO 19N119W. DIURNALLY ENHANCED NW 
TO N WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR N OF 25N WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE EVENING HOURS 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A SMALL AREA 
OF NE 20 KT TRADES EXISTING FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 133W WILL 
DIMINISH BY 12 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A 1008 MB AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 18N109W LIES WITHIN 180 NM TO 
THE NE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF ESTELLE. A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS 
DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IN THE W QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. 
THE REMNANT LOW OF ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THIS LOW 
DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS WITH THE MERGED SYSTEM DRIFTING 
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT AT THE SURFACE ARE FEEDING INTO THIS AREA WHICH IS 
RESULTING IN 8 TO 10 FT COMBINED SEAS. THESE SAME CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WITH 
PERIODS OF 16 TO 18 SECONDS WILL PROPAGATE N OF THE EQUATOR AND 
INTO THE FAR SE WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W BY 30 HOURS 
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 08N.

$$
LEWITSKY